Coal

Vietnam’s Coal Market Evolution

Vietnam’s coal story isn’t linear — it’s a three-act evolution shaped by state control, market liberalization, and the new climate era.

Phase I — Domestic Coal & State Control (Pre-2010)

For decades, Vietnam’s coal industry was inward-looking. Production centered on the Quảng Ninh coalfields, yielding mostly high-ash, low-volatility coal suited for industrial use, with a smaller stream of anthracite/PCI feeding regional steelmaking.

State-owned mills and heavy industry dominated demand; Vinacomin, after consolidation, managed nearly all extraction, processing, and marketing. Infrastructure like Pha Lai Power Station (from 1983 onward) embodied the state-led model: domestic coal, local consumption, limited scale.

Phase II — Import Surge & Energy Expansion (2010–2020)

By 2010, Vietnam’s energy appetite exploded. Rapid growth demanded stable baseload power. The state opened its doors to IPPs and FDI steelmakers — Formosa, Hòa Phát, Pomina — ushering in the first wave of large blast furnaces and imported raw materials.

Domestic coal couldn’t keep pace — limited in both quality and logistics. Imports rose sharply, first from Indonesia and Australia, then diversified.

In early 2025 alone, imports reached ~31.6 million tonnes, up from 27 million a year earlier — worth USD 2.5+ billion.

Vinacomin adapted by blending domestic and imported coal to meet power plant specs — a sign of pragmatism in a transforming market. The 2010s became Vietnam’s infrastructure decade: terminals, ports, blending yards, and long-term power contracts laid the groundwork for today’s import ecosystem.

Phase III — Transition Mode & Peak Horizon (2020 onward)

Vietnam’s Net Zero 2050 pledge now defines the coal narrative.

Under PDP8, no new coal-fired projects are approved after 2030; existing ones face gradual conversion or phase-out by 2035.

Yet reality bites: coal demand still climbs. In 2024, imports surged 31% YoY to ~44 million tonnes, making Vietnam one of the world’s fastest-growing importers. During heatwaves, coal generation still covers ~65% of national power.

Renewables promise a shift — especially wind and solar — but regulatory inertia and capital bottlenecks have slowed rollout. Even major developers, like Equinor, have exited citing delays. Energy shortages and 2025 blackouts in Ho Chi Minh City underscore how tight the supply margin remains.

Most analysts expect coal demand to peak around 2035, as renewables scale and carbon policies tighten. Until then, coal remains the backbone of Vietnam’s energy security — indispensable yet politically charged.

Route to Market & Outlook

Vietnam’s coal sector stands at a rare inflection point: still growing, yet on the clock.

For traders, miners, and logistics players:

• Short term: coal is irreplaceable — reliable, affordable, and entrenched.

• Mid term: success hinges on supply access, blending flexibility, and logistics control.

• Long term: climate policy will reshape costs and participation models.

Those who time their entry well — before the curve flattens — will capture the last great growth cycle in Asia’s thermal coal trade.

Clavis View

At Clavis Resources, we help partners navigate this complexity — from market sizing and sourcing strategy to counterparty vetting and regulatory mapping.

Vietnam’s coal story is still being written.

The opportunity is open — but it won’t stay wide forever.

Let’s talk about how to position before it peaks. 👇